|
|
Post by BigLebowski on Mar 13, 2015 14:39:25 GMT -8
I have Jo-Fer at $7 in an NL only auction keeper league. This is the last year he can be kept. Do I bother keeping him and hope for 2-3 months of production? Will that production be worth $7?
Thanks
|
|
|
|
Post by ayebatter on Mar 13, 2015 15:55:05 GMT -8
His trade value could be worth more than that if you're out of it.
|
|
|
|
Post by ensanimal on Mar 13, 2015 17:46:21 GMT -8
Do you have limited spots to use for keepers? If so, would depend on other options. I think he's worth the gamble at that price in an NL only league. Like the older gentleman above said, should have trade value mid-season if you need it.
|
|
|
|
Post by BigLebowski on Mar 13, 2015 18:13:59 GMT -8
He isn't taking up a keeper spot that I need. I'm just worried I'm wasting that $7 and roster spot at the draft. 2 weeks ago I thought he was a steal and was a no brainer to keep. I've since started talking myself out the benefit of keeping him. I have a good base of keepers and won the league last year, I expect to contend again this season, so the trade value isn't a concern for me. I just started worrying about what he is going to give when/if he does come back this year, and would I be better off using that roster spot for a Jason Hammel that I can likely get for $4-$6 bucks at the draft.
|
|
|
|
Post by aussiedodger on Mar 13, 2015 18:36:04 GMT -8
If you think he plays 2-3 months, that's around 60-90ish innings. He's basically Wade Davis or Andrew Miller without the saves potential. Worth $7?
|
|
|
|
Post by ensanimal on Mar 13, 2015 18:56:59 GMT -8
Any big names available that the extra $7 might help you get?
I usually like to go into an auction with as much cash as possible if there are some big names available. Pitching is so interchangeable at the mid to lower level that you can find cheaper alternatives that give you the same numbers.
|
|
|
|
Post by BigLebowski on Mar 13, 2015 19:06:48 GMT -8
Any big names available that the extra $7 might help you get? I usually like to go into an auction with as much cash as possible if there are some big names available. Pitching is so interchangeable at the mid to lower level that you can find cheaper alternatives that give you the same numbers. Only Kershaw, scherzer, strasburg, Hamels, Shields. I think you guys have helped me decide to throw him back. I have Arrieta $7 and Ian Kennady $5 as keepers as well so I think I'll save the cash and have the extra dough for a true number 1 SP |
|
|
|
Post by thetrith on Mar 15, 2015 16:19:34 GMT -8
Whoah! do NOT throw him back... $7 is like a fraction of his projected value. I dont know your exact settings, but according to Fangraphs new auction calculator, he is projected to earn over $28 in ~130 innings. Drop that down to 100 innings and hes still worth $20. (that is assuming $260 budget and Steamer projections). They have him as the 12th most valuable SP fwiw. www.fangraphs.com/auctiontool.aspx?type=pit&proj=steamer&pos=1,1,1,1,3,1,0,0,0,1,6,3,0,10&dollars=260&teams=10&mp=20&msp=5&mrp=5&mb=1&split=&points=c|0,1,2,3,4|0,1,2,3,4&lg=NL&rep=0&drp=0&players= |
|
|
|
Post by thetrith on Mar 15, 2015 16:23:52 GMT -8
apparently this site cannot handle URL that long. try this: www.fangraphs.com/auctiontool.aspxchange it to NL only and you can input the rest of your settings (not knowing your position setup I changed it to 1 C, 3 OF, and 6 bench) |
|
|
|
Post by ensanimal on Mar 16, 2015 2:25:47 GMT -8
And using the Razzball calculator he is worth $4-$6 depending if you use 10 or 12 team NL only. Just adding this as I wouldn't base my decisions on one site or one calculator. Razzball Calculator |
|
|
|
Post by thetrith on Mar 16, 2015 9:42:52 GMT -8
And using the Razzball calculator he is worth $4-$6 depending if you use 10 or 12 team NL only. Just adding this as I wouldn't base my decisions on one site or one calculator. Razzball CalculatorThat Razzball link just returns me to this thread. Im curious to see what kind of projections they have for him though, because the Fantasy Pros custom auction calculator (using composite projections from several sources) also has Fernandez worth over $20. |
|
|
|
Post by ensanimal on Mar 16, 2015 15:55:30 GMT -8
That's strange. Hope this works!They're not perfect but for me I try and go through multiple spots to see what's going on. In the end, I still go with what I believe to be the true value. |
|
|
|
Post by kab21 on Mar 16, 2015 18:06:01 GMT -8
I think he can easily earn $7 in an NL only league.
|
|
|
|
Post by BigLebowski on Mar 16, 2015 19:02:37 GMT -8
I think he can easily earn $7 in an NL only league. . I think he can too but say I can get a $3 Jason Hammel instead don't you think he out earns that? And costs me less |
|
|
|
Post by kab21 on Mar 16, 2015 20:36:14 GMT -8
Why not get both? The extra money is only useful if you spend all of it.
|
|
|
|
Post by thetrith on Mar 16, 2015 21:07:43 GMT -8
Exactly what kab said. Keeping Fernandez does not preclude you from picking up other bargains in the draft. And I dont think $7 is the difference between you being able to land a Kershaw/Scherzer or not.
If this is H2H then its even more of a no doubter to keep him because he can propel your staff through the playoffs.
Worst case is you find yourself out of the race at the trade deadline, and you trade him for a legitimate keeper. High level pitching is always a huge asset down the stretch.
|
|
|
|
Post by element on Mar 17, 2015 11:00:54 GMT -8
Exactly what kab said. Keeping Fernandez does not preclude you from picking up other bargains in the draft. And I dont think $7 is the difference between you being able to land a Kershaw/Scherzer or not. If this is H2H then its even more of a no doubter to keep him because he can propel your staff through the playoffs. Worst case is you find yourself out of the race at the trade deadline, and you trade him for a legitimate keeper. High level pitching is always a huge asset down the stretch. This. I can only envision to number of Jose Fernandez threads that are going to pop up here later this year. There is going to be a ton of buzz around him & someone will be willing to give you a decent keeper for him if you happen to be out of it. And a $7 commitment shouldn't hurt your chances of landing other players (assuming $260 draft cap). And as mentioned above, in H2H he is even more valuable due to the late push that he could give you into your playoffs. |
|
